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zhoushijie
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   『楼 主』:
美专家:2020年,中国会非常穷
使用 LLM 解释/回答一下
做为一个爱国的中国人,不防听听、想想有道理吗?我们又该如何办,如何防范于未来。
美国兰德公司是一家著名的非盈利的研究机构,为美国官方提供“客观的分析和有效的解决方案”。本文观点来自兰德公司亚太政策中心。
改革开放以前,中国是世界全球化最重要的反对者之一。过去它实行自给自足经济,反对全球经济秩序和主要的全球性机构,如国际货币基金组织IMF和世界银行。它认为全球无序是一件好事情。在毛泽东时代,中国积极推动世界范围内的无序,包括对邻国的叛乱推波助澜。在文化大革命期间,中国学生和其他人在毛泽东的“农民千禧年主义”的指导下,羞辱了大多数政府高级官员和党的领导人,攻击主要的教育机构、社会机构和政治机构,毁坏了中国的很多文化遗产甚至试图摧毁整个国家。两个世纪以来,中国尝试了很多不同的道路如社会主义、资本主义、帝王制、共和国制、军阀、宗教原教旨主义和其他。然而,所有这些尝试都失败了。中国的大部分人开始和一些学生一样,认为世界政治经济秩序和中国政治经济秩序难以动摇,只有先摧毁现有秩序才能走上一条通往成功的道路。
如果20世纪的中国是一个富裕和统一的国家,我们会有一个完全不同的第一次世界大战,我们就不会有第二次世界大战而是第二次欧洲大战。中国能够阻止日本侵略或者打败日本。美国在这些冲突上的花费从根本意义上会减少很多,因为珍珠港事件不会发生。我们和整个世界,更不用说10亿中国人,一个多世纪以来,已经为中国的弱小付出了惨重的代价。世界需要一个健康的中国。
中国全球化的成功将会使我们不再会有类似这样的麻烦:中国不再是一个让世界强权发生激烈冲突的地方;中国不再会支持东南亚、非洲以及拉丁美洲的叛乱;中国不再会寻求破坏全球性金融机构的机会。更加重要的是,这些不仅仅是技术性的调整,像过去清朝那样,提出“中学为体,西学为用”,这些转变否定了中国近千年来传统文化的核心部分。中国人的品味越来越全球化,外国品牌让中国人与世界文化接轨。中国比大多数第三世界国家和很多第一世界国家更加相信全球化。相比较而言,日本和韩国在取得成功的时期,虽然也实行全球化,但是对贸易、外国投资和国内经济活动方面要比中国控制的更加严格。全球化也给中国带来了痛苦的调整阶段。今天,中国的制造业岗位从1994年的5400万个减少到3000万个。
在全球经济低迷的情况下,韩国和菲律宾等国家发现中国的需求使它们免受经济衰退之苦。
最重要的是,中国的需求对日本走出衰退起到了促进作用。日本状况给世界经济带来了风险。关于这一点,怎么说都不夸张。日本巨额的债务会产生多米诺骨牌效应,逐渐波及到全世界。在中国有力的帮助下,危险似乎已经过去。
中国全球化给美国带来了很多影响。最明显的是,中国成为美国商品最大的市场。可口可乐早就完成了那个看上去像是神话的目标:卖10亿瓶可口可乐;曾经嘲笑中国梦的通用在中国卖了很多的别克汽车,在困难时期,中国带来的利润占通用利润的很大一部分;中国联想购买IBM个人电脑业务,挽救了这个垂死部门的工作岗位。IBM从该业务解脱出来,可以进入更高端的科技市场,并且提高了财政水平。中国提供更低价的生活必需品给美国人的生活水平做出了很大的贡献,尤其是对我们不是那么富裕的居民而言。有迹象表明由于能够购买中国低价的出口货物,低收入美国人的生活水平可能提高了5%到10%。
中国金融体系的不合理意味著中国建造了垂死企业,导致巨大的生产力过剩。近些年来,中国财政政策上的反复无常导致过度建造,对铁、铝、水泥和其他原材料产生了巨大的需求。日本人和现在的中国人看上去似乎会买下世界上所有的东西,但是当你看到他们的财政状况的潜在问题时,你会发现一个黑洞。日本人在90年代陷入了这样一个黑洞,至今还在努力地爬出来。中国人很多年后仍将会为目前这种无节制的狂热的购买行为感到心痛。
目前,中国面临著巨大的挑战。中国的银行是我们所知道的世界上最糟糕的银行。中国每一代,都有相当于美国规模的人口从农村涌入城市。每年,都有1200—1300万新工人加入就业大军。在制造业,生产力对就业的影响比我们国家要严重得多。到2020年,中国人口老龄化会使工作人口与不工作人口的比率成为世界上最糟糕的,比日本更甚。如果没有特效的新政策的话,中国的经济在那个时期就会狠狠地撞墙。到2020年,以我们的标准来看,它会是一个非常穷的国家。
As a patriotic Chinese, might as well listen and think, is there any truth? And what should we do and how to guard against the future.
The Rand Corporation is a famous non-profit research institution that provides "objective analysis and effective solutions" for the U.S. official. This article's view comes from the Rand Corporation Asia-Pacific Policy Center.
Before the reform and opening up, China was one of the most important opponents of world globalization. In the past, it practiced a self-sufficient economy and opposed the global economic order and major global institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. It considered global disorder as a good thing. During the Mao Zedong era, China actively promoted disorder worldwide, including fanning the flames of rebellions in neighboring countries. During the Cultural Revolution, Chinese students and others, under the guidance of Mao Zedong's "peasant millenarianism," humiliated most senior government officials and Party leaders, attacked major educational, social, and political institutions, destroyed many cultural heritages in China and even tried to destroy the entire country. For two centuries, China has tried many different paths such as socialism, capitalism, monarchy, republic, warlords, religious fundamentalism, and others. However, all these attempts failed. Most people in China, like some students, began to think that the world political and economic order and China's political and economic order were unshakable, and only by destroying the existing order could they embark on a path to success.
If China in the 20th century had been a wealthy and unified country, we would have a completely different First World War, and we would not have the Second World War but the Second European War. China could have stopped Japan's aggression or defeated Japan. The expenses the United States incurred in these conflicts would have been greatly reduced fundamentally because the Pearl Harbor incident would not have happened. We and the whole world, not to mention 1 billion Chinese, have paid a heavy price for China's weakness for more than a century. The world needs a healthy China.
The success of China's globalization will make us no longer have troubles like this: China will no longer be a place where world powers have fierce conflicts; China will no longer support rebellions in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America; China will no longer seek opportunities to undermine global financial institutions. More importantly, these are not just technical adjustments, like in the Qing Dynasty in the past, proposing "Chinese learning for the fundamental purpose and Western learning for practical use." These transformations have denied the core part of China's traditional culture for nearly a thousand years. The taste of the Chinese people is becoming more and more globalized, and foreign brands have brought the Chinese people in line with world culture. China believes in globalization more than most third-world countries and many first-world countries. In comparison, Japan and South Korea, during the period of their success, although they also carried out globalization, they controlled trade, foreign investment, and domestic economic activities more strictly than China. Globalization has also brought China a painful adjustment period. Today, the number of manufacturing jobs in China has decreased from 54 million in 1994 to 30 million.
In the context of the global economic downturn, countries like South Korea and the Philippines have found that China's demand has spared them from the economic recession.
Most importantly, China's demand has promoted Japan's exit from the recession. Japan's situation has brought risks to the world economy. It is no exaggerating to say about this. Japan's huge debt will have a domino effect and gradually spread to the whole world. With China's powerful help, the danger seems to have passed.
China's globalization has brought many impacts to the United States. The most obvious is that China has become the largest market for U.S. goods. Coca-Cola has long achieved that seemingly mythical goal: selling 1 billion bottles of Coca-Cola; General Motors, which once mocked the Chinese dream, has sold a lot of Buick cars in China, and in difficult times, the profits from China account for a large part of General Motors' profits; Lenovo in China bought IBM's personal computer business, saving the jobs of this dying department. IBM is freed from this business, can enter the higher-end technology market, and improve its financial level. China has contributed a lot to the living standards of Americans by providing lower-priced daily necessities, especially for our less affluent residents. There are signs that due to being able to buy China's low-priced export goods, the living standards of low-income Americans may have increased by 5% to 10%.
The irrationality of China's financial system means that China has built dying enterprises, leading to huge overcapacity. In recent years, the capriciousness in China's fiscal policy has led to over-construction, creating huge demand for iron, aluminum, cement, and other raw materials. The Japanese and now the Chinese seem to be about to buy up everything in the world, but when you see the potential problems in their financial situations, you will find a black hole. The Japanese fell into such a black hole in the 1990s and are still trying to climb out. The Chinese will still feel heartache for the current unrestrained and frenzied purchasing behavior many years later.
At present, China is facing huge challenges. China's banks are the worst banks we know in the world. Every generation in China, there are populations equivalent to the scale of the United States moving from rural areas to cities. Every year, 12 to 13 million new workers join the workforce. In manufacturing, the impact of productivity on employment is more severe than in our country. By 2020, China's population aging will make the ratio of working population to non-working population the worst in the world, even worse than Japan. Without effective new policies, China's economy will hit a wall severely at that time. By 2020, by our standards, it will be a very poor country.
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请点击这里 |
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2006-12-1 09:39 |
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pengfei
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『第 2 楼』:
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表示怀疑, 中国国情注定不能像美国一样只做高科技, 而中国庞大的人口必须靠人口密集型产业来养活.
可喜的是中国在高科技领域已经开始发力, 国家也把创新提高到了国家生存的地步, 明显指出, 不创新中国就只有死路一条. 将近30年的改革开放, 经济和综合国力得到很大提高. 但是最主要的是经过这三十年, 解放了中国人民二千年来的封建思想, 大家开始追求个性与创新.
试问, 从1949年开始外国对中国的各种猜测又有几次是对的, 说到底, 他们的不了解中国国情, 不了解真正的中国人!
Expressing doubt, China's national conditions are bound to not be able to just focus on high-tech like the United States, and China's large population must be supported by labor-intensive industries.
Fortunately, China has begun to make efforts in the high-tech field, and the country has also raised innovation to the level of national survival, clearly pointing out that without innovation, China will only have a dead end. After nearly 30 years of reform and opening up, the economy and comprehensive national strength have been greatly improved. But the most important thing is that after these thirty years, the feudal ideas of the Chinese people for two thousand years have been liberated, and everyone has begun to pursue individuality and innovation.
Ask, how many times have foreign countries' various speculations about China since 1949 been correct? In the final analysis, it's because they don't understand China's national conditions and don't understand the real Chinese people!
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业精于勤而荒于嬉,形成于思而毁于随。 |
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2006-12-1 09:49 |
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DOSforever
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2006-12-1 11:34 |
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DOSforever
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2006-12-1 11:49 |
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雨露
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『第 5 楼』:
使用 LLM 解释/回答一下
同意楼上的观点,对这种说法偶保留意见!
Agree with the view of the person above, but I reserve my opinion on this statement!
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2006-12-2 08:46 |
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tao0610
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    朦胧的世界
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『第 6 楼』:
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如果不考虑中国的"变"十几年后中国有可能会这样.
If not considering China's "changes", China might be like this in more than ten years.
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认识自己,降伏自己,改变自己,才能改变别人! |
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2006-12-3 05:04 |
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Macadd
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2006-12-3 06:55 |
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mountvol
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『第 8 楼』:
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管不着,管不了,没发管。
Can't control, can't manage, can't send.
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2006-12-3 07:25 |
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cqqs01
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2006-12-5 09:30 |
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pengfei
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『第 10 楼』:
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遥远的东方有一条江, 它的名字就叫长江.
遥远的东方有一条河, 它的名字就叫黄河.
虽不曾看见长江美, 梦里常神游长江水.
虽不曾听见黄河壮, 澎湃汹涌在梦里.
古老的东方有一条龙, 它的名字就叫中国.
古老的东方有一群人, 他们全都是龙的传人.
巨龙脚底下我成长, 长成以后是龙的传人.
黑眼睛黑头发黄皮肤, 永永远远是龙的传人.
百年前宁静的一个夜, 巨变前夕的深夜里,
枪炮声敲碎了宁静夜, 四面楚歌是姑息的剑.
多少年炮声仍隆隆, 多少年又是多少年,
巨龙巨龙你擦亮眼, 永永远远地擦亮眼.
巨龙巨龙你擦亮眼, 永永远远地擦亮眼.
There is a river in the far east,
Its name is the Yangtze River.
There is a river in the far east,
Its name is the Yellow River.
Although I haven't seen the beauty of the Yangtze,
In my dreams I often roam the waters of the Yangtze.
Although I haven't heard the grandeur of the Yellow River,
In my dreams it surges with might.
In the ancient east there is a dragon,
Its name is China.
In the ancient east there is a group of people,
All of them are descendants of the dragon.
I grew up under the dragon's feet,
When grown I am a descendant of the dragon.
Black eyes, black hair, yellow skin,
Forever and ever a descendant of the dragon.
One peaceful night a hundred years ago,
In the late night before the great change,
The sound of guns shattered the peaceful night,
Surrounded on all sides is the sword of indulgence.
For many years the guns still rumbled,
For many years and yet more years,
Dragon, dragon, open your eyes wide,
Forever and ever open your eyes wide.
Dragon, dragon, open your eyes wide,
Forever and ever open your eyes wide.
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业精于勤而荒于嬉,形成于思而毁于随。 |
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2006-12-6 13:00 |
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308628652
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2006-12-6 13:23 |
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zhoushijie
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2006-12-7 09:29 |
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DOSforever
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2006-12-7 12:00 |
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seyeskcn
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『第 14 楼』:
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他们的不了解中国国情, 不了解真正的中国!
Their lack of understanding of China's national conditions, their lack of understanding of the real China!
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2006-12-12 07:35 |
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Macadd
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2006-12-16 23:18 |
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