As a patriotic Chinese, might as well listen and think, is there any truth? And what should we do and how to guard against the future.
The Rand Corporation is a famous non-profit research institution that provides "objective analysis and effective solutions" for the U.S. official. This article's view comes from the Rand Corporation Asia-Pacific Policy Center.
Before the reform and opening up, China was one of the most important opponents of world globalization. In the past, it practiced a self-sufficient economy and opposed the global economic order and major global institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. It considered global disorder as a good thing. During the Mao Zedong era, China actively promoted disorder worldwide, including fanning the flames of rebellions in neighboring countries. During the Cultural Revolution, Chinese students and others, under the guidance of Mao Zedong's "peasant millenarianism," humiliated most senior government officials and Party leaders, attacked major educational, social, and political institutions, destroyed many cultural heritages in China and even tried to destroy the entire country. For two centuries, China has tried many different paths such as socialism, capitalism, monarchy, republic, warlords, religious fundamentalism, and others. However, all these attempts failed. Most people in China, like some students, began to think that the world political and economic order and China's political and economic order were unshakable, and only by destroying the existing order could they embark on a path to success.
If China in the 20th century had been a wealthy and unified country, we would have a completely different First World War, and we would not have the Second World War but the Second European War. China could have stopped Japan's aggression or defeated Japan. The expenses the United States incurred in these conflicts would have been greatly reduced fundamentally because the Pearl Harbor incident would not have happened. We and the whole world, not to mention 1 billion Chinese, have paid a heavy price for China's weakness for more than a century. The world needs a healthy China.
The success of China's globalization will make us no longer have troubles like this: China will no longer be a place where world powers have fierce conflicts; China will no longer support rebellions in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America; China will no longer seek opportunities to undermine global financial institutions. More importantly, these are not just technical adjustments, like in the Qing Dynasty in the past, proposing "Chinese learning for the fundamental purpose and Western learning for practical use." These transformations have denied the core part of China's traditional culture for nearly a thousand years. The taste of the Chinese people is becoming more and more globalized, and foreign brands have brought the Chinese people in line with world culture. China believes in globalization more than most third-world countries and many first-world countries. In comparison, Japan and South Korea, during the period of their success, although they also carried out globalization, they controlled trade, foreign investment, and domestic economic activities more strictly than China. Globalization has also brought China a painful adjustment period. Today, the number of manufacturing jobs in China has decreased from 54 million in 1994 to 30 million.
In the context of the global economic downturn, countries like South Korea and the Philippines have found that China's demand has spared them from the economic recession.
Most importantly, China's demand has promoted Japan's exit from the recession. Japan's situation has brought risks to the world economy. It is no exaggerating to say about this. Japan's huge debt will have a domino effect and gradually spread to the whole world. With China's powerful help, the danger seems to have passed.
China's globalization has brought many impacts to the United States. The most obvious is that China has become the largest market for U.S. goods. Coca-Cola has long achieved that seemingly mythical goal: selling 1 billion bottles of Coca-Cola; General Motors, which once mocked the Chinese dream, has sold a lot of Buick cars in China, and in difficult times, the profits from China account for a large part of General Motors' profits; Lenovo in China bought IBM's personal computer business, saving the jobs of this dying department. IBM is freed from this business, can enter the higher-end technology market, and improve its financial level. China has contributed a lot to the living standards of Americans by providing lower-priced daily necessities, especially for our less affluent residents. There are signs that due to being able to buy China's low-priced export goods, the living standards of low-income Americans may have increased by 5% to 10%.
The irrationality of China's financial system means that China has built dying enterprises, leading to huge overcapacity. In recent years, the capriciousness in China's fiscal policy has led to over-construction, creating huge demand for iron, aluminum, cement, and other raw materials. The Japanese and now the Chinese seem to be about to buy up everything in the world, but when you see the potential problems in their financial situations, you will find a black hole. The Japanese fell into such a black hole in the 1990s and are still trying to climb out. The Chinese will still feel heartache for the current unrestrained and frenzied purchasing behavior many years later.
At present, China is facing huge challenges. China's banks are the worst banks we know in the world. Every generation in China, there are populations equivalent to the scale of the United States moving from rural areas to cities. Every year, 12 to 13 million new workers join the workforce. In manufacturing, the impact of productivity on employment is more severe than in our country. By 2020, China's population aging will make the ratio of working population to non-working population the worst in the world, even worse than Japan. Without effective new policies, China's economy will hit a wall severely at that time. By 2020, by our standards, it will be a very poor country.
The Rand Corporation is a famous non-profit research institution that provides "objective analysis and effective solutions" for the U.S. official. This article's view comes from the Rand Corporation Asia-Pacific Policy Center.
Before the reform and opening up, China was one of the most important opponents of world globalization. In the past, it practiced a self-sufficient economy and opposed the global economic order and major global institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. It considered global disorder as a good thing. During the Mao Zedong era, China actively promoted disorder worldwide, including fanning the flames of rebellions in neighboring countries. During the Cultural Revolution, Chinese students and others, under the guidance of Mao Zedong's "peasant millenarianism," humiliated most senior government officials and Party leaders, attacked major educational, social, and political institutions, destroyed many cultural heritages in China and even tried to destroy the entire country. For two centuries, China has tried many different paths such as socialism, capitalism, monarchy, republic, warlords, religious fundamentalism, and others. However, all these attempts failed. Most people in China, like some students, began to think that the world political and economic order and China's political and economic order were unshakable, and only by destroying the existing order could they embark on a path to success.
If China in the 20th century had been a wealthy and unified country, we would have a completely different First World War, and we would not have the Second World War but the Second European War. China could have stopped Japan's aggression or defeated Japan. The expenses the United States incurred in these conflicts would have been greatly reduced fundamentally because the Pearl Harbor incident would not have happened. We and the whole world, not to mention 1 billion Chinese, have paid a heavy price for China's weakness for more than a century. The world needs a healthy China.
The success of China's globalization will make us no longer have troubles like this: China will no longer be a place where world powers have fierce conflicts; China will no longer support rebellions in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America; China will no longer seek opportunities to undermine global financial institutions. More importantly, these are not just technical adjustments, like in the Qing Dynasty in the past, proposing "Chinese learning for the fundamental purpose and Western learning for practical use." These transformations have denied the core part of China's traditional culture for nearly a thousand years. The taste of the Chinese people is becoming more and more globalized, and foreign brands have brought the Chinese people in line with world culture. China believes in globalization more than most third-world countries and many first-world countries. In comparison, Japan and South Korea, during the period of their success, although they also carried out globalization, they controlled trade, foreign investment, and domestic economic activities more strictly than China. Globalization has also brought China a painful adjustment period. Today, the number of manufacturing jobs in China has decreased from 54 million in 1994 to 30 million.
In the context of the global economic downturn, countries like South Korea and the Philippines have found that China's demand has spared them from the economic recession.
Most importantly, China's demand has promoted Japan's exit from the recession. Japan's situation has brought risks to the world economy. It is no exaggerating to say about this. Japan's huge debt will have a domino effect and gradually spread to the whole world. With China's powerful help, the danger seems to have passed.
China's globalization has brought many impacts to the United States. The most obvious is that China has become the largest market for U.S. goods. Coca-Cola has long achieved that seemingly mythical goal: selling 1 billion bottles of Coca-Cola; General Motors, which once mocked the Chinese dream, has sold a lot of Buick cars in China, and in difficult times, the profits from China account for a large part of General Motors' profits; Lenovo in China bought IBM's personal computer business, saving the jobs of this dying department. IBM is freed from this business, can enter the higher-end technology market, and improve its financial level. China has contributed a lot to the living standards of Americans by providing lower-priced daily necessities, especially for our less affluent residents. There are signs that due to being able to buy China's low-priced export goods, the living standards of low-income Americans may have increased by 5% to 10%.
The irrationality of China's financial system means that China has built dying enterprises, leading to huge overcapacity. In recent years, the capriciousness in China's fiscal policy has led to over-construction, creating huge demand for iron, aluminum, cement, and other raw materials. The Japanese and now the Chinese seem to be about to buy up everything in the world, but when you see the potential problems in their financial situations, you will find a black hole. The Japanese fell into such a black hole in the 1990s and are still trying to climb out. The Chinese will still feel heartache for the current unrestrained and frenzied purchasing behavior many years later.
At present, China is facing huge challenges. China's banks are the worst banks we know in the world. Every generation in China, there are populations equivalent to the scale of the United States moving from rural areas to cities. Every year, 12 to 13 million new workers join the workforce. In manufacturing, the impact of productivity on employment is more severe than in our country. By 2020, China's population aging will make the ratio of working population to non-working population the worst in the world, even worse than Japan. Without effective new policies, China's economy will hit a wall severely at that time. By 2020, by our standards, it will be a very poor country.
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